The economic reality

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četvrtak, 12. rujna 2013.

Blessings of falling nominal wage growth


Currently, we operate in a word that some would characterize as an infinite paradigm. This means that GDP must grow each year, prices must rise to reflect the fact that the economy is heating up in a positive way and the money supply must constantly grow to foster commerce.

All of these things were taught in college. Every student in economics was taught the above. Like parrots, they repeat the same thing over and over. Each generation from the 30’s onward has looked upon recessions and other “animal spirits” as inexplicable variables that the human being just happens to create. All of this is nonsense, just as the idea that higher nominal wages are a function of productivity.

To clarify things, higher REAL wages are a function of productivity. It’s the ability to have a higher living standard with the same amount of the “generally accepted medium of exchange” is your pocket/bank account/vault.

I couldn’t care less if my paycheck was 100 dollars, but I could buy all the amenities of life and have something left over. But if my paycheck was 100 dollars, and each subsequent month, the REAL value (not face value) went down, I would demand an explanation. (In the short run, it is true that the certain fluctuations might impact wages that they fall nominally; but only because of the frictional transition of employment from one industry to the other.)

In a fixed money supply environment, money would just shift through different stages of production, impacting the NOMINAL levels throughout the process, making them smaller in nominal terms. The goal is to have the funds/money/savings invested in higher order goods (furthest from consumption) to create a situation of lesser scarcity in the consumer goods industry later. The funds are tied up in the higher order sectors, leading to a DROP in consumer prices (goods not sold after fund transfer) and to a RISE in wages.

In a free market, there would be possibly increases in the money supply, as people’s preferences would shift and the demand and supply of money would change, bringing to an increase or decrease in the money supply. The difference between that system and this one we have now is the entrepreneurial possibility of foreseeing these changes in advance in a freely priced market, while in the current system, the market does not convey such information, but a bureau of government officials (university professors).

In my opinion, a general rise in wages is indicative of a bubble in a certain sector of the economy. As additional created credit flows to wage earners, they bid up the prices of consumer goods (a bottleneck effect occurs due to funds being wrapped in higher order goods along the productive line), forcing the acceleration of wage increases to match the increases in the prices of consumer goods. This, unfortunately, never happens, as wage earners are always a step behind the price increase.

nedjelja, 11. kolovoza 2013.

Work in progress resumes

While browsing thorugh various linkedin profiles, one thing came to particular attention to me that relates to resumes the people put up.

One of the striking things that I saw was the apparent "abundance" of skills and knowledge some individuals have. From this basin of knowledge the most appauling is the " language" section. In this section, you have choice to write which languages you know without stating the LEVEL of knowledge that you have obtained. This however isn't the only section where you have a choice to write freely. The other relates to the "skills" section.

This usually includes people citing multiple language knowledge together with other "skills" they acquired. Knowledge of far east languages or other European languages are usually stated without any reference to level or certificate of knowledge.

The same applies to skills. In this section you can "endorse" an individual who has stated a skill and if you deem fit, you may confirm this skill. Since skill endorsement can only be done when you have be-friended someone, there is a more than apparent bias when endorsing someone.

From personal experience, there are no rules to "skills" and "knowledge" when you are asking for employment opportunities. The employer looks for skills that a person might have that will increase his marginal revenue in excess of marginal costs expensed for employing you.

So, people may feel free to write what they want, its the employer who determines what is really of value in your resume!

The marginal employer and the Croatian IRS

It has been promulgated that over the past couple of years, entreprenuers have been cheating the government by not paying their fair share of taxes. This would include tax avoidance and tax evasions.

Therefore, the new Croatian governement has implemented the so-called fiscal sytems, where all bills for provided goods and services have to be printed out, carrying a unique code. The seller has to give the bill to the customer, and the customer has to take it, with a THREAT OF BEING FINED IF HE/SHE DOESN'T. This way, the government decided to crack down on those who have not been paying taxes orderly and have been "taking to much for themselves" on the side.

The ludacrious part of the entire scheme is the matching of funds in the sellers treasury with the billing amount. This means, that if an entreprenuer has just a dollar in excess of the amount as per the billing documentation, the Croatian IRS swoops in, closes the business, strikes you with a fine and if you make a hassle about it, they start picking through your financial records, just like the ilk in Brussels seems fit to crack down on wealthy individuals who take care of their money and places it in tax havens, where they are not progressively taxed to a marginal rate of over 50%.

Lets make two assumptions regarding the tax avoiders/ evaders:

1. The people who fail to pay taxes out of the incapability of making the payments, due to the tax burden.

2. People who fail to pay taxes, by keeping more money for themselves.

We will prove that both entreprenuers are doing a GOOD thing for the economy.

Point one: The government in the first assumption clearly does not understand the marginal entreprenuer. This individual functions at the margin, by barely making breakeven, or a slight profit without the taxes. If the taxes were there, the businessman would have to close his shop and discharge his workers due to the the fact that the generated revenue does not cover overhead, fixd costs, insurance, maintenance etc. If he were to pay no taxes, we would actually GROW his business, and make his products CHEAPER for the average consumer, which may also complain on the businessman's apparent lack of "patriotism" by not paying taxes.

Point two: Funds aren't going to the government and to boondoggle projects (such as city water fountains and failed gymnasiums). Or even better, to the military (which has won a heroic war a decade ago and proved their worth), when there is no clear foreign threat to our borders.

If anyone decides to come to Croatia for a vacation, please be aware that you might be fined for not taking the bill (lets be honest, if you budget DURING your vacation, you souldn't be on vacation) up to 500 kunas and illegaly ask for your personal ID in the process. They may FORCE you as a TOURIST, out of a hotel you're staying at, because the hotel manager failed to pay a substantial VAT tax.

And alas, just to make a point, if you DID OVERPAY YOUR VAT obligations to the State, but you have a difference of THREE DOLLARS between your treasury and printed bills, THE GOVERNMENT WILL CLOSE YOUR BUSINESS!!

As the old saying goes: Buyer beware (of the lackies at the Croatian IRS).......